⸺ Bull case · January 10, 2026 ⸺
VanEck (Matthew Sigel)
Head of Digital Assets Research, VanEckInstitution
“A base case of $2.9 million per Bitcoin by 2050.”
Price at the call
$90,392
Today
$61,577
Target · 2050
$2.9M
Boldness of the call×32.1
Progress to target0.0%
Needs another ×47.1 from today’s $61,577.
If you’d listened
×0.68
-32% since the call
Annualized audacity
16%/yr
required return per year
Skin in the game
66/100
VanEck operates a spot Bitcoin ETF.
VanEck models Bitcoin settling 5–10% of global trade and a slice of central-bank reserves — a $61T market cap and a $2.9M base case by 2050 (with a $52.4M bull case in the same note). Even its bear case assumes positive long-term returns.