⸺ Bull case · April 27, 2020 ⸺
PlanB
Pseudonymous analyst, Stock-to-Flow modelEvangelist
“The S2FX model puts Bitcoin at $288K between 2021 and 2024.”
Price at the call
$7,787
Today
$61,577
Target · 2021–2024 cycle
$288K
Boldness of the call×37.0
Progress to target19%
Needs another ×4.7 from today’s $61,577.
If you’d listened
×7.91
+691% since the call
Annualized audacity
181%/yr
required return per year
Skin in the game
40/100
Pseudonymous; claims to hold but unverifiable.
The defining bullish framework of the 2020–21 cycle: Bitcoin's halvings mechanically forcing price up by orders of magnitude. The $288k cycle target never arrived — BTC peaked near $69k in 2021 — and the model is now widely regarded as broken. The most-cited number that didn't land.